Aftermath of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis: Media Discourse Analysis of Taiwan and India’s Perception of China’s Threat

This study examines Taiwan and India’s media discourse and political elite statements from 1 July 2022 to 1 October 2023, starting from the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis in 2022. We conducted a discourse analysis of over 121,901 news texts using extensive data analysis and text-mining software. Additionally, our research team conducted expert focus group discussions with renowned think tanks and research centres in New Delhi, India. Building upon the data text analysis findings, we further explored India’s stance on the Taiwan Strait conflict, its perception of the Chinese threat and the impact of the ongoing ‘new normal’ crisis on India’s Indo-Pacific strategic layout. The aim was to uncover common security needs and intersecting interests between the two countries, considering their different national interests and geopolitical considerations. Based on the analysis of textual mining and expert discussions, this study reveals the following: First, India is concerned about the current situation in the Taiwan Strait. Second, the current tensions in the Taiwan Strait will influence India’s strategic layout. Third, there is a growing consensus within India regarding the Chinese threat. In light of these findings, this study suggests that Taiwan and India share interests in democratic values, maritime traffic security and high-tech industry supply chains. Taiwan possesses expertise in China studies and a deep understanding of China’s military threat, while Taiwan and India possess specific technological capabilities. Based on these foundations, there are potential opportunities for further dialogue, exchange and cooperation in relevant fields between India and Taiwan.