Air quality modeling intercomparison and multiscale ensemble chain for Latin America

Abstract. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain has been assembled as a first step towards an air quality analysis and forecasting (AQF) system for Latin America. Two global and three regional models were tested and compared in retrospective mode over a shared domain (120–28° W, 60° S–30° N) for the months of January and July 2015. The objective of this experiment was to understand their performance and characterize their errors. Observations from local air quality monitoring networks in Colombia, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador and Peru were used for model evaluation. The models generally agreed with observations in large cities such as Mexico City and São Paulo, whereas representing smaller urban areas, such as Bogotá and Santiago, was more challenging. For instance, in Santiago during wintertime, the simulations showed large discrepancies with observations. No single model demonstrated superior performance over others or among pollutants and sites available. In general, ozone and NO2 exhibited the lowest bias and errors, especially in São Paulo and Mexico City. For SO2, the bias and error were close to 200 %, except for Bogotá. The ensemble, created from the median value of all models, was evaluated as well. In some cases, the ensemble outperformed the individual models and mitigated extreme over- or underestimation. However, more research is needed before concluding that the ensemble is the path for an AQF system in Latin America. This study identified certain limitations in the models and global emission inventories, which should be addressed with the involvement and experience of local researchers.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geoscientific model development
Published
2024-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024
Citations
13
Primary Topic
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.89

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Air quality modeling intercomparison and multiscale ensemble chain for Latin America

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Geoscientific model development
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
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article

Air quality modeling intercomparison and multiscale ensemble chain for Latin America

Pablo Lichtig, Yuliia Palamarchuk, Mariel Opazo, Cathy W. Y. Li, Laurent Menut, Mikhail A. Sofiev, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, María de Fátima Andrade, Michael Gauss, Camilo Menares, Idir Bouarar, Nicolás Huneeus, Daniel Schuch, Laura Gallardo, Johannes Flemming, Jorge E. Pachón, Guy Pierre Brasseur, Alejandro Herman Delgado Peralta, Néstor Y. Rojas, Rostislav D. Kouznetsov, Andreas Uppstu, Laura Dawidowski
article en
13 citations

Abstract

Abstract. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain has been assembled as a first step towards an air quality analysis and forecasting (AQF) system for Latin America. Two global and three regional models were tested and compared in retrospective mode over a shared domain (120–28° W, 60° S–30° N) for the months of January and July 2015. The objective of this experiment was to understand their performance and characterize their errors. Observations from local air quality monitoring networks in Colombia, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador and Peru were used for model evaluation. The models generally agreed with observations in large cities such as Mexico City and São Paulo, whereas representing smaller urban areas, such as Bogotá and Santiago, was more challenging. For instance, in Santiago during wintertime, the simulations showed large discrepancies with observations. No single model demonstrated superior performance over others or among pollutants and sites available. In general, ozone and NO2 exhibited the lowest bias and errors, especially in São Paulo and Mexico City. For SO2, the bias and error were close to 200 %, except for Bogotá. The ensemble, created from the median value of all models, was evaluated as well. In some cases, the ensemble outperformed the individual models and mitigated extreme over- or underestimation. However, more research is needed before concluding that the ensemble is the path for an AQF system in Latin America. This study identified certain limitations in the models and global emission inventories, which should be addressed with the involvement and experience of local researchers.

Geoscientific model developmentVol. 17(20)
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI), Northeastern University (US), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (NO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR), Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CL), Instituto de Geofísica y Astronomía (CU), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), University of Chile (CL), University of La Salle (CO), Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica (AR)
European Commission, Academy of Finland, H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
Sustainable cities and communities
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
4.89
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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