A Novel Approach for Predicting the Mid–Long-Term Radiation Dose in the Case of a Hypothetical STSBO Nuclear Accident for an Operating Nuclear Power Plant

Four severe nuclear accident scenarios have been identified for operating nuclear power plants (ONPPs). However, there is a research gap in predicting the mid–long-term radiation doses for these scenarios. This study aims to address this gap by proposing a novel approach for predicting the mid–long-term radiation dose in the case of a hypothetical short-term station blackout (STSBO) scenario, one of the aforementioned scenarios. Firstly, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was coupled with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (WRF-HYSPLIT) model to establish an atmospheric transport and diffusion model for airborne radionuclides, and the regularity of the atmospheric transport and diffusion for the airborne radionuclides was determined. Subsequently, the Residual Radioactive Material Guidelines (RESRAD) OFFSITE (RESRAD-OFFSITE) code was utilized to establish a radiation dose model for predicting the mid–long-term radiation dose resulting from the airborne radionuclides, and the evolution of the mid–long-term radiation dose was analyzed. Finally, the proposed approach was applied to an ONPP, and the results were used to predict the mid–long-term public radiation dose. The results indicated that the total radiation dose would be lower than the dose limit recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (1 mSv/yr) from the second month to the 100th year after the hypothetical STSBO nuclear accident, and the total radiation dose would decrease slowly over time. Recommendations are made for offsite emergency response measures. These research findings can assist ONPPs in analyzing their environmental impacts in the event of an STSBO scenario.