Overload cascading failure detection algorithm for multi-layer supply chain network considering delay probability factor

At present, the supply chain is multi-layered and complicated, and its failure detection is based solely on the characteristic threshold, which does not lack the ability to describe the complex supply chain. An overload cascading failure detection algorithm for multi-layer supply chain network considering delay probability is proposed. Based on the multi-layer supply chain network including raw material suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers, the overload cascading failure model of the multi-layer supply chain network is constructed through networking, and the overload cascading failure process of the multi-layer supply chain network is described through three aspects: initial load, node capacity and overload node load distribution. By monitoring and analyzing the status update messages of each node in the supply chain network, and considering the delay probability factor, the node and path that may lead to cascading failure are identified by predicting the delay probability of the next message through the historical message delay probability, and the overload cascading failure detection of the multi-layer supply chain network is realized. The experimental results show that the algorithm can effectively detect the failure of each overloaded enterprise node in the multi-layer supply chain network, which is helpful to enhance the early warning and response ability of the cascade failure of the supply chain network. The algorithm can realize the failure detection of supply chain network under different attack conditions and initial failure ratio of nodes, and measure the anti-risk ability of supply chain network. Under deliberate attack and when the initial attack node is a supplier network layer node, it has a greater impact on the multi-layer supply chain network.