Opinion: How will advances in aerosol science inform our understanding of the health impacts of outdoor particulate pollution?

Abstract. Air pollution, characterized by high levels of particulate matter (PM), poses the greatest environmental threat to human health, causing an estimated 7 million deaths annually and accounting for 5 % of the global gross domestic product (GDP). While the health impacts of PM are influenced by the toxicity of its individual chemical constituents, the mortality burden of PM is solely based on its total mass concentration. This is because of a lack of large-scale, high-resolution data on PM chemical composition, needed for epidemiological assessments. Identifying which PM constituents are harmful to health has been the “holy grail” of atmospheric science since the landmark 1993 study on six US cities established a definitive link between PM and mortality. Ever since, atmospheric scientists have focused on understanding aerosol composition, emission sources, and formation pathways, while longitudinal epidemiological studies have required individual-level exposure data, employing land use regression models for the prediction of exposures at fine resolutions. In this opinion article, we argue that the time has come to shift the focus towards incorporating PM chemical composition into epidemiological health assessments, laying the foundation for the development of new regulatory metrics. This shift will enable the creation of targeted guidelines and subsequent regulations, prioritizing mitigation efforts against the most harmful anthropogenic emissions. Central to this shift is the availability of global, long-term, high-resolution data on PM chemical composition that are obtained through field observations and modelling outputs. In the article, we underscore key milestones within aerosol science that have been integral for advancing this foundational shift. Specifically, we examine emerging modelling tools for estimating exposure to individual PM components, present the type of ambient observations needed for model developments, identify key gaps in our fundamental understanding of emissions and their atmospheric transformation, and propose advancing cross-disciplinary collaboration between aerosol scientists and epidemiologists to understand the health impacts of individual PM components. We contend that aerosol science has now reached a pivotal moment in elucidating the differential health impacts of PM components, representing a first step towards their incorporation into air quality guidelines.