Leveraging crop yield forecasts using satellite information for early warning in Senegal

Agricultural losses driven by climate variability and anthropogenic pressures have severely impacted food security in Senegal. There is a crucial need to generate early warning signals for the upcoming season to enhance food security in response to the sudden climate shocks like drought. In this study, we investigated the spatial distribution of maize and groundnut using factor analysis with a principal component approach. We aimed to identify suitable predictors of crop yields for the development of a seasonal yield prediction model. Subsequently, multi-regression analysis was performed to predict crop yield based on various combinations of satellite-derived vegetation and climate (rainfall) datasets as well as agronomic data from Senegal's 40 districts between 2010 and 2021. Studies revealed a strong correlation between seasonal rainfall (May to September) and crop yield: a 10–20 ​% decline in rainfall can lead to crop losses. The accuracy of the yield prediction model, built on the best performing scenarios for each district based on monsoon onset, duration, and planting time, exceeded 0.5 (R-squared) for all districts when combining rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The model prediction accuracy varied between 0.6 and 0.8 for major crop growing areas. The study emphasizes that refining the yield prediction model using machine learning techniques can improve its accuracy and enable its implementation in early warning systems. This enhanced capability could bolster Senegal's resilience to climate change by aiding decision-makers and planners in developing more effective strategies to ensure food security. • Climate shocks have adversely affected agriculture in Senegal, leading to food insecurity. • Crop yield prediction model uses satellite-derived data to improve early warning signals. • Rainfall significantly affects maize and groundnut yield in various agroecological zones. • Accuracy of the yield prediction model was more optimal for dry districts than for wet districts. • Integrating crop yield predictions in early warning systems can boost Senegal's climate resilience.