Analysis and Performance Evaluationof Decoupling Relationship between CarbonEmissions and Economic Developmentin Chinese Agriculture

This paper addresses temporal characteristics, decoupling relationships, and performance evaluation concerning agricultural carbon emissions in China, providing a basis for achieving the "dual carbon" goals and strengthening the construction of an agricultural powerhouse.A comprehensive index system for agricultural carbon emissions and their performance evaluation is constructed.Based on the systematic measurement index of provincial agricultural carbon emissions in China from 2007 to 2020, the Tapio model is employed to investigate the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth.Additionally, a super-efficiency SBM model is constructed to report the performance and decomposition efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in China.The results indicate that, from 2007 to 2020, the overall trend of agricultural carbon emissions in China follows an inverted "U-shaped" curve, with significant regional disparities and stable grade distribution.The decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development in China has shifted from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, divided into two stages: a steady period (2007-2016) and a breakthrough period (2017-2020).The performance of agricultural carbon emissions shows a trend of "rapid increase-slow decrease-steady improvement," with agricultural production technology change (TC) contributing more prominently than technical efficiency change (EC).It is concluded that since 2017, China's agricultural carbon emissions have shown an overall downward trend, and agricultural economic development has gradually reduced its reliance on agricultural carbon emissions.