The COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery: The mediating role of governance, a global perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic, arguably the most extensive economic shock after the Great Depression, has drawn attention from policy custodians over the past three years. Governments' response brought to the limelight the role that governance plays in mitigating the economic shrinking effects of a pandemic. This study investigated the mediating role of governance in the post-pandemic recovery process using structural equation modelling of cross-sectional data from 125 countries for the years 2020 and 2021. The results show that governance did not mediate economic recovery at the global level. However, regional analysis reveals a full mediation effect in Africa and for low-income countries in 2021. Disaggregating governance by indicators in Africa reveals complete mediation for control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the rule of law. Achieving sustainable economic recovery requires strengthening local governance structures and encouraging international cooperation. The research motivates the establishment of international governance institutions in the spirit of United Nations-driven frameworks. This can be complemented by country-specific, multi-agency, cross-sector collaborations led by the state, the development of governance systems that reduce mistrust among stockholders, and investment in artificial intelligence and e-governance systems.