The projected global burden of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease from 2025 to 2100

Abstract Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of global mortality and morbidity. Controlling modifiable risk factors driving the CVD epidemic is a vital focus of primary prevention efforts worldwide. Understanding the epidemiological trends in these risk factors is therefore essential in designing effective countermeasures against CVDs for the years to come. Purpose This study aims to forecast the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CVDs attributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high body-mass index (BMI), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and tobacco use from 2025 to 2100, stratified by GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and age-groups. Methods Historical data on DALYs from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study was used to project DALYs associated with modifiable risk factors of CVDs from 2025 to 2100. Trends across GBD super-regions, sex, SDI, and age-groups were also examined. Results Between 2025 and 2100, age-standardised DALY rates (ASDR) per 100,000 population are forecasted to fall across all modifiable risk factors, with the greatest decline seen in tobacco use (-76.0%) and high LDL (-66.9%). Globally, high SBP and high BMI expect the greatest ASDR in 2100 (both 891 per 100,000 population), while tobacco use expects the least (213 per 100,000 population). High BMI is expected to rise 623.0% in South Asia and 221.5% in South-east Asia, East Asia and Oceania from 2025 to 2100, while high FPG is expected to rise 114.2% in North Africa and the Middle-east and 110.6% in South Asia. Females are expected to have lower overall and greater reductions in ASDR across all modifiable risk factors when compared to males from 2025 to 2100. Notably, males expect a 11.0% rise in high BMI worldwide across this period. The age-prevalence of modifiable risk factors is expected to be bimodal in 2100, highest in those aged 50-59 as well as 75-84 years old, possibly suggesting improvements in global screening efforts or the earlier development of metabolic dysfunction. All modifiable risk factors are predicted to fall in high and high-middle SDI regions from 2025 to 2100. In contrast, low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions expect a rise in high FPG and high BMI across this same time frame. The burden of modifiable CVD risk factors is expected to be highest in low-middle SDI regions in 2100, as compared to high-middle SDI regions in 2025. Conclusion While the global decline in ASDR of modifiable risk factors suggests overall improvements in the primary prevention of CVDs, regional spikes in high BMI and FPG calls for the implementation of timely, targeted interventions accounting for local trends in CVD. Moreover, the disproportionate metabolic burden expected in lower SDI regions in the coming decades requires concerted, international support to alleviate the global burden of CVDs.