Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of cardiovascular mortality in Australia: preliminary results from prospective observational study

Abstract Background/Introduction A large proportion of the Australian population emigrated from countries where traditional dietary patterns are protective of cardiovascular health. Yet, recent evidence suggests that 42% of a modern Australian diet's total energy intake is comprised of ultra-processed foods. This is concerning as previous meta-analyses and umbrella reviews based on population studies have found an association between ultra-processed food consumption and adverse health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease and mortality. However, this has yet to be explored in an Australian population. Purpose To determine the association between ultra-processed food consumption and the risk of cardiovascular mortality in an Australian cohort. Methods Prospective data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS; n = 38054) were analysed. UPF consumption at baseline (1990 to 1994) was assessed in accordance with the NOVA food classification system using data from a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Energy-adjusted ultra-processed food consumption was then categorised into quartiles. Cardiovascular mortality was obtained through data linkage with national and local registries up to 2015 and 2019, respectively. This was done using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes (390-459 and I00-I99). Unadjusted and adjusted multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to estimate associations between ultra-processed food consumption (exposure) and cardiovascular mortality (outcome). Results A total of 4,242 incident cardiovascular deaths occurred (2,272 for males and 1,970 for females) during the follow-up period. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle and health-related behaviours, higher UPF consumption was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (aOR high (quartile 4) vs. low (quartile 1) category = 1.26, 95%CIs 1.14 to 1.39, ptrend < 0.001). Conclusion(s) In this large prospective cohort of Australian adults, higher ultra-processed food consumption was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. These findings support previous research and guidelines recommending the reduction of ultra-processed food consumption as part of a heart-healthy diet.