Potential Distribution and Carbon Sequestration of Rhizophora mangle L. in El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Mangroves are a type of vegetation distributed in warm areas of the planet. Despite their importance, this flora is seriously threatened by both human activities and climate change. One of the main benefits provided by mangroves is carbon capture and storage, which is key for climate change mitigation. The main objective of this study was to identify the potential distribution and carbon sequestration potential of Rhizophora mangle L. in El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve. Potential distribution models were obtained for Baja California Sur, Mexico, using the MaxLike algorithm. For each projection, we used bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim project for current and future conditions (2050 and 2070), two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and three General Circulation Models (ACCESS-CM2, EC-Earth3-Veg and MPI-ESM1-2-HR). The potential distribution models were developed within the perimeter of El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve as a case study to establish the potential for carbon sequestration under different climate change scenarios. Our results show a possible future carbon sequestration from 10,177,174 Mg of CO2 and up to 14,022,367 Mg of CO2 for the ACCESS-CM2 SSP5-8.5 to 2070 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP2-4.5 to 2070 projections, respectively. Mangrove species such as Rhizophora mangle can be an important part of climate change mitigation and adaptation.