The Future Politics of Social Protection in Africa

International organisations and their local allies continue to press for the further expansion of social protection across Africa, often in the face of resistance. The future politics of social protection in Africa will be shaped by endogenous and exogenous changes. Endogenous changes involve feedback effects from the past and continuing expansion of social protection; these can be either positive or negative in terms of further expansion. Exogenous effects result from the changing structural context, including especially population growth, urbanisation, and climate change. As the Covid-19 pandemic and related lockdowns showed, even those exogenous shocks which reveal gaps in current provision need not prompt enduring expansions of social protection. Neither endogenous nor exogenous changes are likely to shift African countries off their current varied pathways; considerable political obstacles to the further expansion of social protection will persist.