Prediction of the potential Brazilian distribution for invasive mollusc Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774), including a new record from Northern Coastal Region

The freshwater snail Melanoides tuberculata (Müller, 1774) native from Africa and Asia, recently spreads out over the world. Records of invasive species are extremely important, because it helps in future invasions mitigation. Here, we report for the first time the occurrence of M. tuberculata in a protected area of Northern Brazilian Coast and use predictive distribution modeling to know the potential Brazilian distribution for this species. The gastropod M. tuberculata were collected in the municipalities of Tutóia and Santo Amaro - Maranhão State. According to the results of the predictive map distribution for Brazil, the regions with the highest susceptibility are the northeast, southeast and midwest. Preciptation of month and Isothermalithy were de variables that most contribute to the species’ potential distribution. This species presented high to medium suitability of occurrence in 32 national protected areas. Futher studies are recommended to monitor the growth and dispersion, in order to determine its real impact.