Proposing adjustments to heat safety thresholds for junior high and high school sports clubs in Japan

With higher temperatures expected in the future due to global climate change, addressing health risks such as heat illness is increasingly important. In Japan, thousands of heat illness cases occur annually during school sports club activities. The risk may vary by sport, location, and region, but how heat safety thresholds (HSTs) should be adjusted to provide effective guidelines remains uncertain. Thus, we conducted a case-crossover study using data of heat illness cases and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) throughout Japan to evaluate the heat illness risk for the current HSTs and propose adjustments. A significant relationship was found between heat illness incidence and WBGT at the time of the incident, as well as the average WBGT one and two days prior. The risk significantly varies with factors such as club, region, location, year, month, and the average WBGT in summer. Therefore, we recommend lowering the current HSTs by one category (3 °C) in the following cases: (1) clubs at high risk (baseball, softball, soccer/futsal, tennis, track and field, kyudo, and other with sustained exercise or thick uniforms); (2) from April to June; (3) in cooler regions (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, or where the average WBGT in summer≦18℃); (4) for outdoor activities; (5) when heat rapidly increases without adequate heat acclimatization. These findings may inform educators, students, sports authorities, and policymakers in adjusting HSTs to reduce the incidence of heat illness, thereby ensuring safer environments for school sports activities.