Forecasting cognitive functioning: an artificial intelligence approach with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Abstract Background Several potentially modifiable risk factors are associated with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). However, developmental patterns of these risk factors have not been used before to forecast later SCD. Practical tools for the prevention of cognitive decline are needed. We examined multifactorial trajectories of risk factors, and their associations with SCD using an artificial intelligence approach to build a score that forecasts later SCD. Methods Five repeated surveys (2000-2022) of the Helsinki Health Study (n = 8960, 79% women, aged 40-60 at Phase 1) were used to build dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) for estimating the odds of SCD. A score-based approach was implemented for learning DBN using the quotient normalized maximum likelihood criterion. The model was used to predict SCD based on the history of consumption of fruit and vegetables, smoking, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, body mass index, and insomnia symptoms, adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. Results Of the participants, 31-48% reported decline in memory, learning, and concentration in 2022. Physical activity was the strongest predictor of SCD in a 5-year interval, with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% Bayesian credible interval 0.59-0.99) for physically active compared to inactive participants. Alcohol consumption showed a U-shaped relationship with SCD. Other risk factors had minor effects. Conclusions A new online risk score tool was developed that enables individuals to inspect their own risk profiles, as well as explore potential targets for interventions and their estimated contributions to later SCD. Dynamic decision heatmap was presented as a communication tool to be used at healthcare consultations. Key messages • Potentially modifiable health-related behaviours such as physical activity can contribute to subjective cognitive decline. • Artificial intelligence can be applied to discover the complex interactions between risk factors and subjective cognitive decline, to support preventive healthcare at individual and population levels.