How Avoidable Mortality is influenced by health expenditure: an Italian 14-year panel data analysis

Abstract Background Avoidable Mortality is a widely used public health indicator to assess the quality of healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to investigate how the allocation of private and public health expenditure (PHE) could influence avoidable mortality (AM), treatable mortality (TM) and preventable mortality (PM) of Italian citizens. Methods A pooled cross-sectional time series study was conducted. Italian healthcare data from 2009 to 2019 was extracted from ‘Health for All’, a WHO-related database released periodically by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. PHE was divided by providers area (directly provided services (DPS), general and specialist medicine, pharmaceutical, rehabilitation). Data about private health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC), level of education, medical drug consumption per capita (MDCPC), general practitioners per capita (GPPC), physical exercise, tobacco use, and obesity were collected. AM was divided into TM and PM using OECD/Eurostat lists of causes of death (2022). A fixed-effects regression was used to assess the effects of economic and social variables on AM, TM and PM. Results Higher spending on DPS (-0.027), higher MDCPC (-0.859) and higher GDPPC (-0.001) were associated with lower rates of AM. Higher sport activity (c -0.673) was associated with lower rates of TM. Higher levels of private health expenditure (0.022) and higher number of GPPC (0.023) were associated with higher rates of PM; these counterintuitive results could be caused by the inappropriateness of medical treatment directly requested by patients. Other variables were not significantly associated with AM, TM or PM. Conclusions The results highlight the importance of medical DPS by NHS (emergency departments, hospital care, specialized care, primary care, etc.). Analyzing health data divided by areas of NHS we could help policy makers to allocate human and economic resources more efficiently. Key messages • The allocation of public health resources could influence the health status of the polulazion. • Italian National Health System could reduce avoidable mortality through the use of directly provided services.