Impacts of long-term climate change on human health: a global scoping review

Abstract Introduction Research output on climate change and human health is growing rapidly. This can make it difficult to find and use relevant information to develop public health action. Methods We present a global scoping review of the rapidly growing quantitative research output on long-term climate change and human health. We searched Scopus, Embase, and PubMed for quantitative, English language literature published between January 2000 and June 2021 that referenced climate change and human health in titles, abstracts, or keywords. Results From 36,956 publications we identified 754 relevant studies. Europe, the Americas, and the Western Pacific were studied much more often than other WHO regions. Research on temperature and vectors accounted for 70% of all included publications. Malaria, diarrheal diseases, and cardiovascular diseases were the most studied specific health outcomes. We found very few studies on non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Retrospective publications (153) showed effects of climate change are already occurring worldwide. Most studies on tick-borne encephalitis, malaria, and lower respiratory infections associated with air pollution found impacts caused by climate change have increased. The strongest attribution of climate change was found for heat-related impacts. In prospective publications (626) diarrheal diseases, and impacts associated with heat and chemical air pollution were most consistently projected to increase. Future vector-borne disease impacts were projected to be highly location specific. Some studies demonstrated adaptation can effectively reduce impacts, while noting that capacity to adapt differs greatly between population groups. Conclusions Our findings underline climate change impacts are diverse and complex. Future research should prioritize the relatively understudied regions most vulnerable to climate change, such as Africa, and impacts beyond those related to temperature and vector-borne diseases.