Assessing the current health effects of climate change in the Netherlands

Abstract The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has assessed the current effects of climate change on health as part of a national sector-wide process towards updating the Dutch National Adaptation Strategy. Besides health, this process includes assessing the risks of climate change for water management, agriculture, the built environment, nature and other sectors. It will provide a basis for policy, for prioritising the most urgent risks and for long-term risk monitoring. Six climate-related health topics were assessed for this update: heat, air quality, mental health, UV radiation, pollen allergies and infectious diseases. To allow comparison of the impact and likelihood of the climate-related risks across sectors, a format for factsheets on climate risks had been provided. Following this format, for each climate-related health topic we considered the climate threat, secondary effects, exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, impact and cascading effects. The magnitude of the health impacts was categorised per topic as low (< 10,000 people affected; 0 - 10 seriously injured/dead), medium (10,000 - 100,000 people affected; 10 - 100 seriously injured/dead) or high (>100,000 people affected; >100 seriously injured/dead). The likelihood of these impacts was then described as well as possible black swan events or tipping points. Finally, the policy context was outlined, including possible maladaptation, lock-ins, and equity aspects, followed by quality assurance considerations. For all topics, negative health impacts are already occurring. However, the magnitude of the impacts cannot yet be accurately quantified. In this presentation, we will discuss the results of this assessment and explore the pros and cons of being part of a sector-wide process.