Cost-effectiveness analysis of Chagas disease screening in pregnant women and their infants in Italy

Abstract Background Currently, Chagas disease (CD) is widespread in European nations that host notable populations from Latin America. Vertical transmission is a pathway for the spread of the disease in countries where it is not endemic. Due to socio-economic disparities, CD is a public health concern in non-endemic regions, raised by migration phenomena in vulnerable population groups who face similar hindrances as those most at risk in endemic areas. The aim is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CD screening versus no screening in pregnant women and their infants in Italy. Methods A Bayesian Markov model was employed to compare the CD screening versus the no screening alternative. Model parameters were sourced from pertinent scientific literature. A lifetime perspective was adopted, aligning with the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. The Eurozone threshold was applied. Costs and benefits were discounted at a rate of 3%. Gibbs sampling served as the algorithm for Bayesian inference. Uncertainty was addressed through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a value of information analysis (VOI), depicted via the Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curve (CEAC) and Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). Results were presented as the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER). Results The base case results showed that CD screening was cost-effective, with an ICER of €5,112 [€1,850 - €10,043]. Furthermore, according to the CEAC, the screening option exhibited the greatest probability of being cost-effective across all thresholds. Additionally, the EVPI per mother was €818 based on a threshold of €50,000/diagnosis. Conclusions Implementing a structured CD screening program also in non-endemic countries has the potential for early detection and treatment. This contributes to SDG 3 by improving access to healthcare, preventing transmission, and reducing the disease burden as well as informing public health policies for marginalised populations. Key messages • This study proves that screening for CD in pregnant women and their infants in a non-endemic area is a cost-effective strategy and possibly cost-saving in the long term. • Study findings could support a wider implementation of CD screening in Italy by informing health policy-makers in their decision-making process.