Methods for projecting health workforce planning in Ireland: a collaborative approach

Abstract Background Health workforce planning (HWFP) is the process of analysing, forecasting, and planning workforce supply and demand, assessing gaps, and determining target workforce to ensure that health systems are prepared for future demand. HWFP elicits recommendations that are ideally utilised by the health system to support medical workforce over a defined time. Methods The objective of this project is to inform intake for medical and surgical specialties in Ireland to reach the necessary consultant workforce by 2038. A literature search was conducted to help inform the methodology for this project. The most common approach was a needs-based model, and additional reviews discussed the integration of medical engagement into the modelling approach. Results This project will employ a collaborative approach, combining mathematical modelling and a combination of quantitative and qualitative inputs, including the following phases: 1. The research phase will estimate baseline supply and demand data across medical and surgical specialties in Ireland using statistical models; 2. The presentation phase will include input from clinical leads to allow for more accurate assumptions in the baseline of each model; 3. Review of projections will include feedback from the clinical leads to help clarify and improve the initial model; 4. Presentation of the revised projection will include further collaboration with clinical leads to finalise the model. Conclusions The robust methodology for this HWFP project will ideally inform medical and surgical specialities in Ireland through 2038. Specific and extensive predictions of health workforce supply and demand will enhance strategic preparation, which is a key priority for the Health Service Executive in Ireland. Key messages • A collaborative approach to HWFP is essential for health service preparation and improvement. • The project will be finalised by the end of 2024, and the methodology for conducting similar HWFP projects can be adapted by other EU states.