Human-forest proximity and the risk infectious diseases in a changing world

Abstract Background Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) pose a significant threat to global human health; they can lead to epidemics and pandemics with severe repercussions on human life, economic performance, and societal well-being. Despite the recognized negative impact of the EIDs, current research lacks a comprehensive global framework to assess the significance and interaction of various environmental and anthropogenic factors driving emergence of these diseases. Methods In this study, we examine both environmental and anthropogenic factors and their relation to the emergence of EIDs, focusing on historical trends from 1975 to 2020. We focus on 10 diseases with pandemic and epidemic potential. Spatial data on outbreaks in humans and animals from 1975 to 2020 were retrieved from the GIDEON database. Using Bayesian statistical models, we pinpoint regions at increased risk, and we focus on a new indicator based on the human-forest proximity. Conclusions Our results show that human-forest proximity together with biodiversity loss, and high population density increase the likelihood of diseases being transmitted from animals to humans, influencing where outbreaks occur among human populations. Lastly, we introduce a country vulnerability index that combines our risk assessment with the IHRC3 indicator from the WHO, which gauges a country’s capability to handle zoonotic diseases. These combined indices help us to assess each country’s ability to respond to an outbreak. The study also addresses data limitations and proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the importance of our findings in shaping public health policies and decision-making. Key messages • Anthropogenic drivers shape the distribution of outbreaks in human populations. • Human-forest proximity exacerbates the likelihood of Emerging Infectious Disease.