Applying foresight methods at the national level in the field of substance use: Experience from the DRUG-PREP project

Abstract This presentation will focus on the experience from the DRUG-PREP project. While foresight has been used in other sectors, its implementation in the drugs field has previously remained relatively limited. The application of foresight to the drugs sphere is important in recognition of the fast-changing and intersectional nature of drugs and addiction. At the European level, a futures exercise was organized by the EMCDDA (as of July 2024 the European Union Drugs Agency, EUDA) to explore the future of drugs at the European level until 2030. In this landscape, the DRUG-PREP project implemented foresight approaches at the national level, to support preparedness of national drug monitoring and response systems. The DRUG-PREP partners carried out individual national exercises in six countries: Belgium, Czechia, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Portugal. The link to policy was a key aspect of the project, with each country organising a national dialogue to directly engage policymakers. The presentation will focus on the Belgian research. Horizon Scanning was performed to identify trends and megatrends with potential implications on the national drugs ecosystem, through a literature review. An expert workshop was organized to validate the trends and explore their implications. Subsequently, a small scenario building exercise was organised to explore the consequences of a clearly defined ‘disruptor’: the ban on opium production in Afghanistan. Finally, a national dialogue allowed discussion with stakeholders on how foresight can be integrated more structurally in the drugs field in Belgium. A summary of the results will be presented. Policymakers across all levels (local, regional, federal) have been active participants in the foresight activities and workshops. The link to policymaking has been crystallized in the integration of foresight into the new Belgian National Drugs Strategy 2024-2025.