Past trends and future projections of psychological distress among general population in Finland

Abstract Introduction The aim was to examine past and future trends of psychological distress in Finland from 2013 to 2040. Methods Six representative cross-sectional surveys from the years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022 (N = 172,547, aged 20+ y) were used. Multiple imputation was used in projecting psychological distress (MHI-5, with cut-off value ≤60). As the COVID-19 pandemic had a strong effect on psychological distress which persisted after the pandemic, projections were made with and without data from the years 2020 and 2022. Results The prevalence of psychological distress was slightly declining during the period 2013-2018 for both men and women, ending up around 18% for men and 19% for women. When including the years 2020 and 2022, however, trends showed a steep increase in the prevalence of psychological distress during 2018-2022. Among 20-39-year-olds, the prevalence of psychological distress increased 9.8%-points over the four-year period. Similarly, among 40-54-year-olds, an 8.2%-points increase was observed. In older age groups (55-64, 65-74 and 75 years and older) psychological distress first increased from 2018 to 2020 but then plateaued especially among the oldest. Projections based on the observed past trends during the period 2013-2018 showed a steady decline in psychological distress, the prevalence of psychological distress ending up around 11% for men and around 15% for women in 2040. When including the years 2020 and 2022, however, the projections suggested an increase in psychological distress in the general population and the prevalence of psychological distress is projected to end up around 37 % for both men and women in 2030. Conclusions The prevalence of psychological distress has increased substantially in the 2020s particularly in young adults. Mental health needs to be given a priority in all policies in order to change the future projections. Key messages • The upward trend of psychological distress did not reverse or plateau after COVID-19 pandemic in Finland. • Increased efforts to protect and promote mental health in all policies seem indicated especially among young adults.