The future of screening and early detection in the Netherlands: a foresight study to support new screening policy strategies

Abstract The Dutch government provides several population screening programmes intended for early detection of diseases so that prompt treatment can be provided. These include population screenings for various forms of cancer and screenings for specific diseases in unborn and newborn children. The future provision of these screenings is influenced by various developments, including the ageing population, economic fluctuations and technological advancements. To understand these developments and their potential impacts on the future of screening and early detection, RIVM has conducted a foresight study based upon a systematic six-step approach. Important steps in this process are building a conceptual framework, identifying important developments via horizon scanning, selecting scenario logics and making scenarios in order to select important challenges and opportunities for the future. The final output of the foresight study consists of a broad horizon scan, two simple future scenarios and four societal perspectives on screening and early detection. In this foresight study, there was special attention for the role of different societal perspectives and the variation in desirable futures that these perspectives entail. These perspectives were presented to the Ministry and other important stakeholders in the future strategy planning, by playing a serious role game. The results of the foresight study and the experience of looking to the future through various perspectives forms the input for the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport in formulating a strategy for the future of screening and early detection and making informed decisions about potential actions. The presentation will focus on how the foresight process was done and how this has informed the Ministry of Health in order for them to follow the next steps in setting future goals and ambitions and planning for a future policy strategy.