Forecasting the future demand on health workforce – the Austrian model

Abstract Background An aging population and upcoming retirements of health care professionals pose new challenges to the Austrian health care system. On the one hand the health care and nursing needs will increase while at the same time a shortage on health care personnel threatens adequate supply. We as the Austrian Public Health Institute estimate the risk of an undersupply with model-based health workforce forecasting and are therefore able to advise the federal states and the ministry of health on early measures. Methods We developed a forecasting model to estimate the future supply and demand. The main influencing factors are the demographic development as well as the upcoming retirements and graduates. Different environments and needs in different federal states (e.g. changing future skill mix) are considered and can be implemented as additional influencing factors. Usually a baseline scenario as a forward projection of the status quo is developed for defined professions and workplace settings. Then depending on the stakeholder needs additional scenarios are calculated and discussed. A usual forecast horizon is 10 to 15 years. Results Model output are time series of yearly workforce personnel numbers (heads and full-time equivalents) and demand in the defined settings. An analysis of possible gaps shows the need for action. Conclusions The Austrian health workforce model is a flexible tool to estimate future needs on health workforce based on different assumptions. But as assumptions and influencing factors must be represented as data, the data collection can be quite laborious. Comprehensive data is the basis for a comprehensive health workforce planning. Further work is needed to develop practical and evidence-based nursing-sensitive indicators for nursing workfoce reportings on a country level. In Austria the health professionals register forms the basis for the description of the nursing workforce structure, but that there is a need for data sources on care effectiveness. Key messages • Comprehensive data is the basis for a comprehensive health workforce planning. • An aging population and upcoming retirements of health care professionals pose new challenges to the Austrian health care system.