Risk Profiles of Avoidable and Unavoidable Hospitalizations: a Swedish population-based study

Abstract Background Older adults frequently experience multiple hospitalizations, owing to their complex health and social needs. This study aims to comprehensively characterize the risk factors associated with avoidable and unavoidable hospitalization among older adults. Specific emphasis is placed on avoidable/unavoidable hospitalization originating from chronic or acute causes. Methods Data on 3,166 individuals aged ≥60 years were obtained from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), linked to the Swedish National Patient Register. Multistate models were used to investigate the risk profiles of participants experiencing their first and recurrent hospitalizations over 15 years. The Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare criteria were used to define avoidable/unavoidable hospitalizations. Results Women had a lower hazard of avoidable hospitalizations for chronic conditions as well as unavoidable hospitalizations (HR range 0.46-0.84). However, receiving informal care was associated with 88% increased hazard of avoidable hospitalizations due to chronic causes (95%CI 1.18-2.99), while receiving formal care was associated with 44% increasing hazard of avoidable hospitalization due to acute causes (95%CI1.04-1.98). Factors such as slow walking speed, multimorbidity, and polypharmacy were associated with a high risk of avoidable hospitalizations due to both acute (HR range1.27-3.03) and chronic (HR range1.63-2.54) causes. Conclusions Both clinical and functional factors have emerged as key predictors of avoidable hospitalization, underscoring the importance of comprehensive risk assessment and proactive healthcare management strategies to reduce the burden of hospital utilization in older adults. Key messages • Targeted interventions are essential to improve healthcare outcomes among older adults at risk of avoidable hospitalizations due to chronic and acute conditions. • The study identified predictors such as slow walking speed, multimorbidity, and polypharmacy, underscoring the need for comprehensive risk assessment to prevent avoidable hospitalization.