Public Health Challenges for 2050 in the Netherlands

Abstract Every 4 years, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) carries out the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study, commissioned by the Ministry of Health. The ninth edition (PHFS-2024) compiles an outlook on future public health and the health care system in the Netherlands. It combines a business-as-usual Trend Scenario with literature study and a range of qualitative and mixed-methods approaches. The Trend Scenario comprises projections up to 2050 for a broad range of epidemiological indicators. Such as (healthy) life expectancy, disease burden, life style factors. The qualitative and mixed methods approaches supported an incremental intersubjective process. Methods were a focus groups study, stakeholder sessions and workshops. An important innovation in this study was the Citizen Council and Panel. The outcomes show that demographic development, in particular growth of the group people at high age with multimorbidity, will lead to high pressure on the formal and informal health care system but also on e.g. mental health. A life course approach applied shows that decreasing mental health of youth will have long term consequences. Also, overweight will deeply impact older people’s health in the future. Lastly, climate change in combination with e.g. energy transition will deeply affect our society and living environment. Next to these challenges, there will also be opportunities to improve health. Building a climate-proof living environment that also stimulates healthy life styles and social interaction is one of them. However, improving health has linkages with policy areas outside the traditional public health domain as well and requires, firstly, a Health in/for All Policies approach. Secondly a whole-of-society approach in which companies and civil organizations take action is needed. All these efforts can only be effective if people and communities are put at the core of all health policies.