Low conduction velocity is a key factor for localisation of reentrant drivers for atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia globally, associated with heightened risks of stroke, dementia, and heart failure. Catheter ablation, the sole curative therapy for AF, yields suboptimal success rates for persistent AF cases. Understanding the mechanisms and dynamics of AF remains challenging, hindering treatment advancements. Novel ablation strategies aimed at targeting substrates harbouring AF reentrant drivers (RD), such as low-voltage ablation and rotor-based ablation, have yet to demonstrate superiority over the gold standard ablation strategy – pulmonary vein isolation. Purpose The purpose of the study is to integrate in-silico 3D left atrial (LA) simulations and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) to pinpoint key factors for RD localisation in persistent AF, aiming to improve the mechanistic understanding of AF and help develop a more effective ablation strategy. Methods 3D LA models were derived from magnetic resonance images of 41 patients and combined with atrial cell electrophysiology models. Persistent AF was initiated in each patient-specific LA model with fast pacing, and five functional features (action potential duration (APD), conduction velocity (CV), wavelength, APD spatial gradient, CV spatial gradient, and wavelength spatial gradient) and three structural features (fibrotic density, fibrotic entropy, and image intensity ratio) were evaluated. A random forest AI model was trained to classify phase singularities corresponding to the RDs (PS-RD) in five distinct tissue classes (total LA tissue, healthy tissue, fibrotic border zone, dense fibrotic tissue, and PS-RD tissue) based on the functional and structural features. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis was then used to find the most influential feature in the AI model’s decision process. Results Simulations of the patient-specific LA models revealed that RDs were typically localised in regions with the lowest atrial CV, which often coincided with patches of dense fibrotic tissue. In a five-fold cross-validation, the random forest AI model achieved high accuracy in classifying PS-RD regions: a mean ROC AUC of 0.99 ± 0.010, a mean F1 score of 0.86 ± 0.034, a mean recall of 0.95 ± 0.058, and a mean precision score of 0.79 ± 0.085. The further SHAP analysis revealed that low CV was the key determinant in classifying the PS-RD regions. Conclusion Our study combined AF computational modelling and explainable AI to identify the key factors in RD localisation. Both the computational and AI models concluded that low CV was the most important determinant in localising RDs. These findings provide mechanistic evidence for the efficacy of ablation strategies that target low CV atrial areas for persistent AF patients.