Impact of heart failure diagnosis on recorded healthcare resource use by older people in Wales; is primary care shouldering a hidden burden?

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) is associated with high healthcare resource use and mortality. Most of the evidence focuses on hospital admission data. The impact on primary care interactions and outpatient attendance is less well described, but this information is important in understanding resource utilisation, patient pathways, and in planning services. Purpose To examine how a diagnosis of HF impacts healthcare resource use and outcomes for older people in Wales. Methods We conducted a retrospective, population-level, observational study using linked anonymised electronic health record (EHR) data in Wales (2015-22). 737,230 individuals were aged 65y+ in the study period in primary and secondary care data. Of these, 65,010 had a code for HF in their primary or secondary care records. To evaluate changes in resource use, we excluded 13,990 individuals with fewer than 12 months health data pre- and post-diagnosis. We summarised general practice (GP) interactions, emergency department (ED) attendance, outpatient (OP) attendance, inpatient (IP) episodes and days, time between HF diagnosis and death, and place of death. Results The final cohort comprised 51,020 individuals 65y and over with a diagnosis of HF between 2015-2022. Incidence and prevalence of HF increased across the study period (1.4-1.5% and 8.5-9.1% respectively). Figure 1 shows the percentage change in healthcare resource use for the cohort when HF was diagnosed (12 months pre-and post-diagnosis comparison). Table 1 shows the average number of healthcare utilisation events per person. After a diagnosis of HF, there are fewer ED attendances (-28.2%) and IP admissions (-9.3%) but more OP appointments (31%) and GP interactions (20.3%). When admissions occur, hospital stays tend to be longer (55.4%). Median time (IQR) from HF diagnosis to death from any cause was 247(34-840) days, and with HF listed as a cause 186(25-780) days. In this cohort, the place of death was recorded as NHS establishment (20,379, 67.8%), community (5,450, 18.1%), non-NHS establishment (3,789,12.6%) and unknown (450, 1.5%). Conclusions In Wales, a diagnosis of HF in those 65y+ increases primary care interactions and OP attendances. The change in volume of primary care interactions is considerable (increase from 1,047,920 to 1,315,080). Longer hospital stays may suggest difficulty in managing patients or discharging back to community settings. Majority of those with HF die in NHS establishments. It is unclear whether this reflects deficits in end-of-life care. These results are important in planning effective health service delivery and in establishing baseline data from which to monitor quality improvements.