The effect of urban resilience on social stability under external disaster strikes--Evidence from China during COVID-19 pandemic

The robustness of civil society plays a pivotal role in shaping the aftermath of disasters. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the question arises: why did some cities witness widespread resident protests, while others remained relatively calm? Certain theoretical studies have suggested that urban economic disruptions stemming from external disasters can significantly undermine social stability, yet these studies lack empirical validation of the underlying mechanisms. This research endeavors to explore the factors within urban resilience that influence social stability during major public events, a topic that has received scant attention in existing empirical studies.Utilizing data from the Chinese General Social Survey (2021), this study introduces an empirical causal analysis framework integrating the "entropy value method" and "fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA)" to investigate the following: (1) The univariate test reveals that the consistency level of all conditions is below 0.9, indicating that no single-dimensional factor alone can enhance social stability. (2) The absence of urban economic resilience emerges as a critical conditional variable contributing to non-high levels of social stability, thereby serving as the primary driver of social instability. (3) Group analysis identifies three distinct pathways through which urban resilience impacts social stability: the "economic-ecological-resource" support path, the "economic-ecological-risk" mitigation path, and the "economic-ecological-challenge" resolution path.