Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System
Abstract Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.
Authors
- Mark A. Cochrane (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4573-568X)
- Hans‐Erik Andersen
- Sha Feng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2376-0868)
- K. J. Davis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1992-8381)
- Robert E. Kennedy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5507-474X)
- E. Sepulveda Carlo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7650-7970)
- D. F. Baker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4144-4946)
- Paul L. Patterson
- Rodrigo Vargas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6829-5333)
- Michael C. Dietze (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2324-2518)
- Brett Raczka (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0582-1118)
- Shawn Paul Serbin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4136-8971)
- Andrew Thomas Hudak (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7480-1458)
- Chad Babcock (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9597-4462)
- Laura Duncanson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4031-3493)
- Molly E. Brown (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7384-3314)
- Junjie Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7184-6594)
Institutions
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Boston University (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Oregon State University (US)
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (US)
- Pacific Northwest Research Station (US)
- Rocky Mountain Research Station (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- University of Delaware (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Environmental Research Letters
- Published
- 2024-10-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8be0
- Citations
- 4
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.13
Funders
- Earth Sciences Division
- Division of Environmental Biology