Examining prognostic scores for short-term major adverse cardiovascular events prediction following primary PCI: a comparative analysis

Abstract Background Accurately predicting short-term MACE (major adverse cardiac events) following primary PCI remains a clinical challenge. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of four established risk scores in predicting short-term MACE after primary PCI (percutaneous coronary intervention). Methodology We enrolled a cohort of consecutive adult patients diagnosed with STEMI (ST elevation myocardial infarction) undergoing primary PCI in this prospective observational study. Patients were followed at the interval of 3 months up for up to 12 months, and MACE events were recorded. Additionally, we obtained TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE scores. Results A total of 2839 patients (79.3% male, mean age 55.6 ± 11.2 years) were included. Over a median follow-up of 244 days, the composite MACE rate was 18.3% (519). All-cause mortality was 13.5% (384), re-infarction requiring revascularization was 4.3% (121), heart failure-related re-hospitalization was 2.6% (74), stent thrombosis occurred in 5.6% (160), and CVA (cerebrovascular accident) events were documented in 1% (28). The AUC (area under the curve) for TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE scores were 0.658 [0.630-0.685], 0.658 [0.632-0.684], 0.669 [0.644-0.695], and 0.675 [0.649-0.701], respectively, for the prediction of MACE. On multivariable Cox regression, medium and high-risk categories based on GRACE score were independent predictors of MACE with adjusted HR (hazard ratio) of 1.52 [1.21-1.92]; p<0.001 and 1.92 [1.34-2.75]; p<0.001, respectively. Conclusion A significant proportion of patients experienced short-term MACE after primary PCI. While none of the assessed scores demonstrated significant predictive power, the GRACE score exhibited comparatively better predictive ability than TIMI, PAMI, and CADILLAC scores