The associations of triglyceride glucose and its derived indexes with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in a Chinese community-based population

Abstract Background The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has been regarded as a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance and an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes. However, the associations of the derived TyG indexes with incident CVD risk are controversial, and that the relevant data are sparse for the Chinese population studies. Objectives We aimed to investigate the association of TyG index and its derived indexes with incident CVD risk and to compare their predictive capacity in the Chinese community-based population. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study on subjects from a Beijing community in China who were free of prevalent stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline. The primary endpoint was a new-onset major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, first non-fatal stroke, and first non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses and time-dependent receiver operator characteristic curve analyses were performed. Results A total of 8,806 participants were included. The mean age was 56.51 ± 8.93 years, and 5,679 (64.5%) were female. The median value of TyG index, TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR were 8.71 (8.34-9.12), 226.37 (201.02-252.87), 720.80 (653.52-791.03), and 4.47 (4.07-4.90), respectively. During a mean 9.7-year follow-up, a total of 877 (10%) cases of MACE were recorded. The Kaplan–Meier curves showed significant differences in cumulative hazards of new-onset MACE among tertiles of abovementioned indexes (Log rank P < 0.0001) (Figure 1). Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that TyG index, TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR were positively associated with the hazards of MACE. Compared with tertile 1, the multivariable adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of incident CVD for tertile 3 were 1.26 (1.01-1.56), 1.57 (1.15-2.14), 1.54 (1.19-2.00), and 1.81 (1.40-2.33) for TyG, TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR, respectively (Figure 2). There are no significant differences in the Harrell's C indexes among the various indexes compared to the TyG index (TyG index: 0.758 [0.743-0.774], TyG-BMI: 0.758 [0.743-0.773], TyG-WC: 0.758 [0.743-0.774], and TyG-WHtR: 0.760 [0.745-0.775]). Conclusions Higher TyG and its derived indexes are significantly associated with an increased risk of 10-year MACE. Our results suggest that TyG and its derived indexes may serve as a useful marker for stratifying CVD risk in the general population.