Temporal trends in treatment patterns, morbidity, and mortality in patients with new-onset heart failure compared to heart failure survivors: a nationwide 23-year perspective

Abstract Background New therapy options have improved the prognosis of heart failure (HF) over recent decades. However, temporal trends in the prognosis and treatment disparities between patients with new-onset HF and HF survivors remain unexplored. Purpose To investigate temporal trends in HF treatment patterns, worsening HF and all-cause mortality, in new-onset HF patients compared to HF survivors. Methods We defined two separate cohorts of patients with HF, using the Danish nationwide registers. One cohort comprised all patients with new-onset HF each year from 1996 to 2018, included at the date of HF diagnosis (new-onset HF patients). The second cohort comprised patients with HF who have survived at least three years since being diagnosed with HF, included on January 1st of each year from 1996 to 2018 (HF survivors). Patients were allowed to contribute in both cohorts. The proportion of patients in guideline recommended therapy and the absolute five-year risk of worsening HF and all-cause mortality were assessed in the two cohorts separately, accounting for competing risks where relevant. Results From 1996 to 2018, the proportion of HF survivors tripled, while the number of yearly new-onset HF patients remained constant (figure 1). The proportion of new-onset HF patients who redeemed a prescription of BB increased from 17.1% in 1996 to 78.2% in 2018, while it increased from 15.9% to 69.4% in HF survivors during the same period. The proportion of patients in ACEi/ARB therapy increased from 49.1% to 81.5% in the new-onset HF patients, while it increased from 37.8% to 69.0% in HF survivors. The proportion of patients in MRA therapy increased from 14.4 to 33.0% in those with new-onset HF, and from 19.1% to 24.8% in HF survivors. The absolute risk (AR)[±95CI] for all-cause mortality decreased from 68.4% [67.9-68.9] in the first year group (1996-2000) to 45.7% [45.0-46.3] in the latest year group (2013-2018) for new-onset HF patients, while it decreased from 58.4% [58.2-58.9] to 39.7% [39.4-40.0] for the HF survivors. Additionally, the AR for worsening HF went from 27.4% [26.9-27.8] in the first year group to 27.8% [27.3-28.2] in the latest year group for the new-onset HF patients, whereas it for the HF survivors decreased from 19.6% [19.3-20.0] to 16.7% [16.4-19.9]. Conclusions Over a 23-year period, the annual number of patients with incident HF has remained constant while the number of HF survivors has increased by 304%. Although HF survivors show a lower prescription redemption prevalence for essential HF medications compared to incident HF patients, they exhibit significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality and worsening HF.Figure 1:OverviewFigure 2:Prescription redememption rates