Longitudinal changes in the prevalence of indicators for the precursor stage B of heart failure: results of the STAAB study

Abstract Background The ACC/AHA guidelines on heart failure (HF) use selected echocardiographic signs of structural heart disease (SHD) as well as NT-proBNP levels to define the precursor stage B of heart failure in asymptomatic individuals. Purpose To study the change in prevalence over time of echocardiographic signs of SHD or elevated NT-proBNP levels in clinically inapparent individuals of the general population. Methods The STAAB study investigates precursor stages of HF in the general population of a medium-sized city in Germany (source population 124,297 inhabitants as of 2011 census). Participants, stratified for sex and age (30-79 years), were recruited between 12/2013 and 10/2017 from the source population if they had no preceding HF diagnosis and were followed for 2-4 years. Echocardiographic signs of SHD were (for exact definitions see table): left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy, LV dilation, reduced LV ejection fraction. Subjects with history of myocardial infarction, significant LV valve disease or symptomatic HF (Framingham criteria) were excluded. Results Of 4,965 subjects included at baseline, 3,684 (74.2%; mean age 55.2 years, 52.7% women) with at least one paired measurement were analysed. The changes observed over time in the prevalence of echocardiographic signs of SHD and elevated NT-proBNP levels are displayed in the table. Prevalences of echocardiographic signs of SHD increased (significantly for LVEF and LV dilation, trend for LV hypertrophy). Addition of NT-proBNP increased the cross-sectional prevalences, but not the change in prevalence of potential HF precursor stages. Conclusion The net incidence of clinically inapparent echocardiographic signs of SHD increased over time at a rate consistent with the prevalence observed for clinically apparent HF in the general population. Of note, not all echocardiographic findings will eventually result in symptomatic HF, and the classification is influenced by measurement errors. However, our data support the concept of HF precursor stages.