Methodological insights into severity distribution of non-fatal cancer burden in Belgium using a microsimulation model (2004-2019)

Abstract This study leverages a registry-based microsimulation model to analyze the non-fatal burden of cancer in Belgium from 2004 to 2019, emphasizing the methodology for severity distribution. Utilizing incidence- and prevalence-based approaches, we estimated Years Lived with Disability (YLD) through detailed national cancer registry data coupled with tailored disease models. The microsimulation model employed enabled nuanced translation of cancer incidence into prevalence estimates, incorporating the longitudinal impacts of disease severity influenced by treatment. Methodologically, the model integrated expert elicitation to adjust for treatment-related disabilities, such as surgical aftereffects, enhancing the accuracy of disability weight assignment across different cancer stages. This approach allowed for a dynamic assessment of disease burden, reflecting real-world complexities of cancer prognosis and treatment pathways. Significant findings include a substantial increase in the age-standardized non-fatal burden for non-melanoma skin cancer, highlighting the model’s capability to detect shifts in disease impact over time. By focusing on the microsimulation’s capacity to delineate severity distributions within the cancer burden landscape, this analysis underscores the model’s utility in refining health policy decisions and resource allocation. Ultimately, this study presents a robust framework for national burden of disease studies, facilitating detailed evaluations of health interventions and their longitudinal effectiveness.