Urban burden of disease estimation for policy making

Abstract Introduction The Urban Burden of Disease Estimation for Policy Making (UBDPolicy) project aims to estimate the health impacts resulting from urban and transport planning related exposures in nearly 1000 European cities. So far, quantitative burden of disease assessments have estimated premature mortality attributable to the environmental stressors of air pollution, noise, urban heat islands and lack of green space for the year 2015. Regular reporting and trend monitoring of the health impacts associated with urban environments is crucial for assessing the wider impacts of urban and transport planning. Methods For almost 1000 European cities, quantitative Health Impact Assessments (HIAs) will be conducted that employ the comparative risk assessment methodology. Baseline exposure levels of air pollution, noise, urban heat islands and green space will be estimated and preventable health impacts modelled using counterfactual exposure scenarios. Analysis will comprise two components: firstly, the 2018 HIA will incorporate multiple environmental exposures for that year, while the second component will monitor trends at three-yearly reporting intervals covering the years of 2015, 2018, 2021 and 2024. Results Results are intended to shape evidence-informed urban planning and policies throughout Europe. By ranking cities according to environmental exposures and health impacts, cities are encouraged to address challenges and learn from successful urban design and planning policies in other cities. Discussion HIAs serve as an effective tool for identifying the health impacts of current and future urban policies. The provision of burden of disease estimates will provide policy-makers and practitioners robust data for informed decision-making, while estimates over time will allow tracking of changes from implemented policies. To fully harness the potential of cities as key drivers of sustainable and healthy living, robust evidence must be at the forefront of this change. Key messages • A multitude of urban and transport planning pathways contribute toward the health of urban populations. • Compact city designs often promote health, however there are exceptions.