Analysis of medical doctor supply in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia in the last two decades

Abstract Introduction The shortage of medical doctors in Europe has become a priority issue, especially in the Eastern European region, where many countries are making large investments to ensure adequate supply. Training future medical professionals is a lengthy and costly process that significantly impacts healthcare accessibility and quality. As part of the project of the Laboratory for Strengthening Capacity and Performance of Health System and Workforce for Health Equity, we aimed to assess the changes in the medical doctor supply in several Balkan countries over the last two decades. Methods Data on the total number of graduated medical doctors (MD) and their rate per 100,000 population from 2000 to 2021 was retrieved from the Eurostat database. This open-access database contains the reported number of students who have graduated from medical schools for each year and selected countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia). The standard methods of descriptive statistics were used to perform the analysis. Results During the observed period, the number of MDs graduating annually and their rates per 100,000 population have increased in all countries. Romania leads with the highest rate of MD graduates at 26.18 per 100,000 people, followed by Bulgaria (22.74), Serbia (19.15), and Croatia (16.56). From 2000 to 2021, Bulgaria experienced the highest increase in the number of medical doctor graduates, with a rise of 169.1% in absolute numbers and 200.9% in rate. In contrast, Serbia had the lowest increase, with only a 135.5% rise in the total number of medical doctor graduates and a rate increase of 152.3%. Conclusions In the last 20 years, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia have seen an increase in the number of MD graduates and their rate per 100,000 population. Policymakers should consider the investments and education trends of medical professionals in relation to their employment and migrations to predict the future supply of doctors in this region. Key messages • Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia have seen an increase in the number of MD graduates and their rate per 100,000 population in the last twenty years. • Considering the trends in the number of newly graduated doctors, policymakers should address additional factors to ensure an adequate supply of medical doctors.