Trends in diabetes morbi-mortality and its association with abdominal obesity among Tunisian adults

Abstract Introduction Tunisia is undergoing rapid nutritional transition, with increasing rates of abdominal obesity. Coupled with rising diabetes prevalence, it poses significant challenges to public health. This study aimed to estimate the morbi-mortality prevalence and trends of diabetes among Tunisian adults, particularly examining its association with abdominal obesity. Methods We conducted a secondary data analysis on adults aged 35 to 70 from three national surveys in Tunisia, in 1996 (n = 3513), 2005 (n = 7700), and 2016 (n = 6007) respectively. Mortality data was sourced from the Tunisian National Information System on Causes of Death in 2020. The underlying cause of death was determined using the IRIS software, following WHO guidelines for tabulating mortality statistics. Diabetes was defined according to the American Association of Diabetes criteria. Abdominal obesity was defined as a waist-to-height ratio ≥ 0.6. We performed chi-squared test for trend analysis. Results A total of 17220 participants were analyzed. We found a significant upwards trend in diabetes prevalence (p < 10-3): it increased from 13.1%[11.9-14.3] in 1996 to 15.1% [12.5-17.4] in 2005, then to 20.5%[18.9-22.1] in 2016. Linear trend test concluded to significant increase in diabetes prevalence estimated at 56.6% in two decades. Diabetes was significantly associated with abdominal obesity (Odds ratio (OR)=2.17[2.11-2.21]). Diabetes was the leading cause of death among Tunisian adults in 2020 (n = 22715). The proportional mortality due to diabetes was estimated at 6.2% (n = 1407) (6.4% for men and 6% for women). The age group with the highest proportional mortality due to diabetes was 65-70 years old (44.6%). Conclusions Our findings highlight the burden of diabetes on public health in Tunisia and its association with abdominal obesity. Hence the urgency to strengthen comprehensive preventive and control measures to alleviate its repercussions among the Tunisian population. Key messages • The prevalence of diabetes increased significantly amongTunisian adults in the past two decades. • Immediate implementation of targeted interventions and policy measures is imperative to effectively address this issue.