Long-term risk of heart failure and postoperative atrial fibrillation following noncardiac surgery: not so different from non-surgical atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with the development of heart failure (HF). However, it is unclear if postoperative AF (POAF) after noncardiac surgery differs from non-surgical AF in terms of the risk of HF. Objectives To investigate the long-term rate of incident HF in patients developing new-onset POAF after noncardiac surgery relative to patients with non-surgical nonvalvular AF (NVAF). Methods Using Danish nationwide registries, all patients aged ≥30 years who developed POAF following noncardiac, nonobstetric surgery from 1996 to 2020 were identified. These patients were matched in a 1:3 ratio by age, sex, selected comorbidities, and year of inclusion with patients with non-surgical NVAF. The primary outcome was incident HF. Secondary outcomes were HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality. Results A total of 1,846 patients with POAF were matched with 5,538 patients with non-surgical NVAF (median age: 76 years [25th-75th percentile: 67-83 years]; 53.1% females). The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Compared with patients with non-surgical NVAF, patients with POAF did not have a significantly different rate of incident HF (2.7 versus 3.0 events per 100 person-years; HR 0.89 [95% CI, 0.78-1.03]) or HF hospitalization (2.2 versus 2.4 per 100 person-years; HR 0.88 [95% CI, 0.76-1.03]), but they had a higher rate of all-cause mortality (10.0 versus 8.7 per 100 person-years; HR 1.27 [95% CI, 1.18-1.37]) (Figure 1). Conclusions Patients with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation did not have a significantly different rate of incident heart failure or heart failure hospitalization, but they had a higher associated rate of all-cause mortality compared to patients with non-surgical atrial fibrillation. This finding suggests that postoperative atrial fibrillation may be regarded as non-surgical atrial fibrillation in terms of the long-term risk of heart failure. This highlights the importance of increased awareness among physicians of the risk of adverse outcomes, including heart failure, in patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery. Closer postoperative follow-up and monitoring, as well as aggressive treatment of cardiovascular risk factors, may be warranted to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes in these patients.