Validation and development of a scoring system for comprehensively evaluating arterial damage in the elderly chinese

Abstract Background and aims Existing assessments on arterial damage focus on specific segments of arterial system (e.g., carotid artery), lacking a comprehensive index to evaluate overall arterial health. We aimed to integrate existing assessments for arterial damage and develop a new score, named Arterial Damage Index (ADI), to comprehensively evaluate arterial health status of the whole-body arterial system. Methods A total of 3075 community-dwelling elderly Chinese (age ≥65 years) from the North Shanghai Study (2014–2022) were included. Assessments on arteries including ankle-brachial index (ABI), pulse wave velocity (PWV), carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and plaques, pulse pressure (PP), and inter-arm (IASBPD) and -leg (ILSBPD) systolic blood pressure difference were included for screening. Cox proportional hazards regressions of MACEs (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and all-cause mortality) were conducted to acquire the ADI algorithm. Internal and external validation on ADI were also performed. Results Over a median follow-up period of 6.4 years, 316 individuals (10.3%) experienced an incident of MACE. After screening, PWV, ABI, PP, CIMT, and carotid plaque were included for ADI scoring system. Survival analysis revealed a significant difference in the rates of composite events across different ADI stratifications (p for trend < .05). ADI showed superior discriminative performance (C-index 0.65±0.02) compared to any individual arterial-related indicator. Calibration curve shows the predictive model showed that the predicted and actual probabilities were broadly consistent. Additionally, ADI provided better incremental value when added to the base model (net reclassification improvement, 36.2% [95% CI, 15.3%-52.1%]; p < .05, integrated discrimination improvement, 7.9% [95% CI, 4.9%-11.0%]; p < .05) compared to any individual arterial-related indicator. These findings were confirmed in internal validation sets (p for DeLong tests >0.05), and was externally validated in 2155 participants from a community-based cardiovascular disease cohort among residents in Beijing, China. Conclusion ADI can comprehensively assess arterial damage and provide a valuable tool for further assessment of future cardiovascular risk.central illustration