Prediction of incident major adverse cardiac events in patients starting haemodialysis for end stage kidney disease, using clinical laboratory cardiac biomarkers - a real world analysis.

Abstract Background and Aims Despite its many advantages, haemodialysis (HD) is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, with some studies reporting 48% higher mortality within 2 years of starting HD. Cardiac biomarkers provide insight into cardiac structure and function, including myocyte stress, inflammation and fibrosis. We aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of routine cardiac biomarkers (troponin and natriuretic peptides) in the prediction of incident major adverse cardiac events (MACE) within 5 years if commencing HD. Methods A retrospective cohort study was performed using electronic medical records from a global federated research network from the US. The network was searched on 26th February 2023. The cohorts commenced HD post-diagnosis of end-stage kidney disease. Data censoring for MACE was invoked prior to the index event of HD. Cardiac biomarkers were the first reported result within 3 months of starting HD. Cohorts were grouped according to biomarker-specific thresholds and 1:1 propensity-score matched for age, gender and co-morbidities (hypertension, diabetes mellitus and smoking status). Logistical regression produced odds ratios with 95%CI for 5-year incident MACE. MACE was defined, a priori, as a composite of ischaemic heart disease, angina pectoris, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, AF, stroke and all-cause mortality. All statistical analysis was performed on the online platform. Results The results are shown Tables 1(Troponin I and BNP alone) and 2 (Combined Troponin I and BNP). Results that reached statistical significance (p<0.05) are shown. Conclusion Routinely available cardiac biomarkers can predict MACE and cardiac outcomes in incident HD, although results differ between markers of myocyte injury (troponin) and stress (BNP). A combined approach may prove most beneficial. The results suggest the clinical need for CV mortality and morbidity risk profiling in incident dialysis using a combination of clinical and laboratory variables and the need for prospective validation.Table 1Table 2