Pathogenic cardiomyopathy gene variants inform prognosis in atrial fibrillation: results from exome sequencing in over 17,000 patients in TIMI trials

Abstract Background Rare genetic variants in cardiomyopathy genes are associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), even in the absence of overt ventricular dysfunction. Data on clinical outcomes for rare genetic variant carriers among patients with AF remain sparse. Purpose We aimed to study the prognostic implication of rare pathogenic/likely pathogenic (PLP) variants for dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) in patients with AF from large, well-phenotyped randomized clinical trials. Methods and results Rare variants were called using exome sequencing data in 5 large clinical trials from the TIMI study group (ENGAGE-AF, FOURIER, SAVOR, PEGASUS, DECLARE). PLP variants for cardiomyopathy were identified using phenotype- and gene-specific curation of protein-truncating variants and high-confidence variant classifications from the ClinVar database. In 17,190 patients with a history of AF, we identified 421 (2.4%) PLP variant carriers (age 67±10, 35% women) and 16,769 (97.6%) pts without PLP variants (age 70±9, 36% women). Among these individuals, we identified 265 DCM carriers (1.5%), 106 (0.6%) HCM carriers and 54 (0.3%) ARVC carriers. In this cohort, 9,275 (54%) had a history of heart failure (HF) and 2,991 (17.4%) prior ischemic stroke. Over 2.5 years median follow-up, 1,365 pts (7.9%) were hospitalized for HF, 599 (3.5%) had an ischemic stroke, and 1147 (6.7%) died of cardiovascular causes. In logistic regression analyses adjusting for age, sex, trial, and principal components of ancestry, PLP variants were significantly associated with a history of HF (OR 1.66, p<0.0001), most notably for DCM variants (OR 1.97, 1.48-2.62, p<0.0001). PLP variants were independently associated with incident HF admissions (adj HR 1.75, 1.39-2.29, p<0.0001), most notably for HCM (adj HR 2.59, 1.68-3.99, p<0.0001) and ARVC variants (adj HR 2.50, 1.34-4.66, p=0.004). The increased risk of HF admissions remained consistent in patients with (adj HR 1.49, 1.11-2.00, p=0.009) and those without (adj HR 1.88, 1.00-3.54, p=0.049) a history of HF. PLP variants were also associated with higher risk of cardiovascular death (adj HR 1.46, 1.06-2.02, p=0.02), most notably for DCM variants (adj HR 1.77, 1.21-2.58, p=0.003). In contrast, PLP variants were not associated with history of ischemic stroke at baseline (adj OR 0.99, p=0.96) nor with incident ischemic stroke (adj HR 0.95, p=0.84). Conclusion In patients with AF, rare cardiomyopathy gene variants are associated with increased risks of HF and of cardiovascular death, but not stroke. These results, collected from large well-phenotyped randomized clinical trials, demonstrate an important prognostic implication for rare genetic variants for CMP in pts with AF.