Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality in acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Background Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains one of the leading causes of death globally. Accurate and reliable mortality risk prediction of ACS patients is essential for developing targeted treatment strategies and improve prognostication. Traditional models for risk stratification such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores offer moderate discriminative value, and do not incorporate contemporary predictors of ACS prognosis. Machine learning (ML) models have emerged as an alternate method that may offer improved risk assessment. This study aims to compare machine learning models with traditional risk scores for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with ACS. Methods PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane databases were searched until 1st November 2023 for studies comparing ML models with traditional statistical methods for event prediction of ACS patients. The primary outcome was comparative discrimination measured by C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals between ML models and traditional methods in estimating the risk of all-cause mortality. Results Ten studies were included (239627 patients). The summary C-statistic of all ML models across all endpoints was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92), compared to traditional methods 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79-0.85). The difference in C-statistic between all ML models and traditional methods was 0.07 (p<0.05). Three models undertook external validation, and calibration was inconsistently reported. Conclusion ML models demonstrated superior discrimination of all-cause mortality for ACS patients compared to traditional risk scores. Despite outperforming well-established prognostic tools such as the GRACE and TIMI scores, current clinical applications of ML approaches remain uncertain, particularly in view of the methodological limitations of existing models and the need for greater validation.