Clinical validated risk prediction model for development of heart failure after contemporary breast cancer treatment

Abstract Background Patients receiving breast cancer (BC) treatment are at risk for heart failure and cardiomyopathy (HF/CM). European Society of Cardiology (ESC) cardio-oncology guidelines recommend baseline cardiovascular (CV) assessment, however, there is limited data about cardiotoxicity risk specific to patients with BC. Our aim was to develop and validate model for prediction of HF/CM in women receiving contemporary treatment for invasive early-stage BC. Methods We assembled a cohort women diagnosed with Stage I-III BC from 2008-2020 and followed through 2021 in a large health care plan. Women age >80, with history of HF/CM, and women who received both anthracyclines and trastuzumab were excluded, leaving N=26,044 for analysis. Study cohort was randomly split into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) datasets. Elastic-net penalized Cox proportional hazard model was created using the derivation dataset to select risk factors and to calculate the panelized coefficient which defined the HF/CM risk score. Risk score system was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and area under the ROC curve (AUC). Event rates of <5% constituted low risk; 5-14% moderate; and >15% high risk category. Incident HF/CM events were examined using Kaplan-Meier approach in derivation and validation datasets. Results HF/CM risk score had high discrimination ability and sufficiently good model of fit regarding HF/CM events (P value=0.163 and 0.667 from Hosmer–Lemeshow test;AUC 0.751 and 0.764, in derivation and validation sets, respectively). There were 10% of women in the high risk; 30% in moderate; and 60% in low-risk group. Variables associated with the higher HF/CM risk score included age, receipt of anthracycline-based chemotherapy or anti-HER2 therapy, presence of hypertension, diabetes, or history of other CV conditions at baseline. The score pattern showed major effect of age, with anthracycline and anti-HER2 therapy increasing the risk across all age groups (Figure 1). Kaplan-Meier analysis of incident HF/CM over 14 years after BC diagnosis showed significantly lower number of HF/CM events in low risk compared to moderate and high-risk score groups (p<0.0001, Figure 2). Conclusion Our robust risk prediction model for HF/CM among women with early-stage BC provides a new tool to identify women at higher CV risk and inform cardiac function monitoring during and after BC treatment. Our findings may guide further validation studies and build evidence for the cardiotoxicity risk stratification in patients with BC.Risk Score for HF/CM by Age/ChemoTxK-M curves of freedom from HF/CM