Patient characteristics and mortality trends among octogenarians with heart failure over two decades - a Danish nationwide study

Abstract Background Mortality rates among octogenarians with heart failure (HF) have changed little despite significant advancements in care over recent decades. Investigating the factors contributing to this trend may offer valuable insights for devising targeted management strategies for the oldest HF patients. Purpose We aimed to examine different patient characteristics associated with mortality among octogenarians with HF over the past 20 years. Methods From nationwide Danish healthcare registries, we included all patients with new-onset HF between 2001-2020 who were ≥ 80 years old at the time of diagnosis. The patients were categorized into 5-year calendar periods depending on the time of their diagnosis, the first period being between 2001-2005 and the last 2016-2020. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to assess the mortality risk. Mortality rates were examined with multivariable Cox regression models, comparing the first (reference) and the last calendar period and adjusting for predefined covariables. Results We included 47,754 octogenarian patients with new-onset HF, of whom 13,293 (51%) were diagnosed between 2001-2005 and 12,813 (49%) between 2016-2020. The distribution of males and females changed between the two calendar periods, with 5696 (43%) males in the first period and 6631 (52%) in the last period. The 3-year absolute mortality risk decreased by 8% [95% CI, 7.9-8.0] from 2001-2005 (64% [95% CI, 63.9-64.7]) to 2016-2020 (56% [95% CI, 55.3-56.7]) (p-value <0.001) (Figure 1). After adjustment for covariables, patients diagnosed in the last period exhibited a mortality hazard ratio (HR) of 0.94 [CI 95% 0.90-0.99] (p-value 0.02) compared to those diagnosed in the first period. An interaction was observed between the first and the last calendar periods among patients with a history of myocardial infarction and those aged <85 years. The survival rates improved over time for patients with a history of myocardial infarction (HR 0.80 [95% CI, 0.72-0.90], p-value for interaction<0.001), as well as for those aged between 80 and 85 years (HR 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80-0.91], p-value for interaction<0.001) (Figure 2). Conclusion Over two decades the mortality risk among octogenarians with HF has improved slightly, however it remains high. Patients with a history of myocardial infarction and those aged 80 to 85 years emerge as subgroups experiencing the most improved survival rates over time.3-year mortality riskMortality rates in selected subgroups