Risk factors of all-cause mortality in heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction patients with different post-discharge left ventricular ejection fraction variation patterns

Abstract Background The identification of risk factors for all-cause mortality in patients diagnosed with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and exhibiting varying post-discharge left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) patterns remains incomplete. This study aimed to determine the independent risk factors of all-cause mortality among HFmrEF patients with different LVEF variation patterns post-discharge. Methods This retrospective study analyzed data from 807 HFmrEF patients admitted to our hospital between January 2015 and August 2020. Patients were categorized into three groups based on LVEF variation patterns within 6 months to one year post-discharge: Group A (transitioning to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF], n=225), Group B (remaining as HFmrEF, n=335), and Group C (reverting to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF], n=227). Patients were followed up for a mean of 33 months, with all-cause mortality as the primary endpoint. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in each group. Results The mortality rates for Groups A, B, and C were 43.11%, 23.94%, and 24.67%, respectively (P<0.001). Independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in Group A included age (HR=1.04, P=0.007), obesity (HR=1.76, P=0.040), higher creatinine (>100 µmol/L, HR=1.83, P=0.029), higher E/e’ (HR=1.06, P=0.001), absence of PCI (HR=0.51, P=0.019), and non-use of ACEI/ARB (HR=0.039, P=0.006). In Group B, independent risk factors for all-cause mortality were age (HR=1.06, P<0.001), higher NT-proBNP (>2505 pg/ml, HR=2.50, P=0.002), and absence of PCI (HR=0.040, P=0.005). Group C exhibited age (HR=1.04, P=0.002), pleural effusion (HR=2.38, P=0.007), higher creatinine (>100 µmol/L, HR=2.84, P<0.001), and non-use of ACEI/ARB (HR=0.42, P=0.021) as significant independent risk factors associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. Conclusion This study highlights distinct risk factors associated with all-cause mortality in HFmrEF patients exhibiting different post-discharge LVEF variation patterns. Age emerged as a consistent risk factor across all groups, underscoring the importance of age-related considerations in managing HFmrEF patients. Additionally, factors such as obesity, renal function, echocardiographic parameters, and medication adherence played varying roles in influencing mortality risk depending on the evolution of LVEF following discharge. These findings emphasize the need for personalized risk stratification and tailored management strategies for HFmrEF patients to improve outcomes and reduce mortality rates.