Time Series Forecasting of Thermal Systems Dispatch in Legal Amazon Using Machine Learning

This paper analyzes time series forecasting methods applied to thermal systems in Brazil, specifically focusing on diesel consumption as a key determinant. Recognizing the critical role of thermal systems in ensuring energy stability, especially during low rain seasons, this study employs bagged, boosted, and stacked ensemble learning methods for time series forecasting focusing on exploring consumption patterns and trends. By leveraging historical data, the research aims to predict future diesel consumption within Brazil’s thermal energy sector. Based on the bagged ensemble learning approach a mean absolute percentage error of 0.089% and a coefficient of determination of 0.9752 were achieved (average considering 50 experiments), showing it to be a promising model for the short-time forecasting of thermal dispatch for the electric power generation system. The bagged model results were better than for boosted and stacked ensemble learning methods, long short-term memory networks, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems. Since the thermal dispatch in Brazil is closely related to energy prices, the predictions presented here are an interesting way of planning and decision-making for energy power systems.