A direct comparison of non-invasive blood markers of liver fibrosis as associates of cardiovascular risk. The Athens cardiometabolic registry

Abstract Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This risk increases further with advanced liver fibrosis. To date, non-invasive tests (NIT) for liver fibrosis risk have not been established as diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers of CVD. Purpose The purpose of the study was to compare NIT of liver fibrosis with respect to their associations with vascular injury and cardiovascular (CV) events. Methods Individuals without clinically overt CVD and patients with CVD (total n=1,692), consecutively recruited in the Athens Cardiometabolic Registry, were analysed in this study. We retrospectively evaluated the association of NIT (i.e. Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), NAFLD Fibrosis score (NFS), BARD score) with indices of subclinical arterial injury (i.e. carotid wall thickness and atherosclerotic plaque for subclinical atherosclerosis, pulse wave velocity (PWV), for arterial stiffness) and the incidence of CV events. Patients were followed-up for CV events for a median time of 39 months. Results Elevated FIB-4 (>2.67) was associated with vascular damage [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.97, 95% confidence intervals (CI)= 1.71-5.78 for maximal wall thickness (maxWT) and aOR=4.58, 95% CI=2.44-8.60 for PWV] across the entire study population, including those with or without clinically overt CVD. NFS> 0.675 showed similar associations but lacked significant correlation with arterial stiffness in coronary artery disease patients. FIB-4> 2.67 and BARD> 2 were associated with increased risk of the composite endpoint of CV death, acute myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization [adjusted hazard ratio, (aHR)=2.00, 95% CI= 1.12-3.55 and aHR=3.36, 95% CI=1.03-11.0 for FIB-4 (n=842) and BARD (n=887) respectively]. FIB-4 and BARD as continuous variables confered incremental prognostic value compared to European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2). Conclusion In a population with a wide range of cardiometabolic risk, FIB-4 was associated with both markers of atherosclerotic disease and arterial stiffness as well as with adverse CV events. These data support further investigation of FIB-4 as a biomarker of CV risk.