Trends in hypertension prevalence and control in England over the last 3 decades: Health Survey of England 1994-2019

Abstract Globally, raised blood pressure (BP) contributes to more than 10.8 million avoidable deaths from cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease. Understanding national BP control trends amongst hypertensive patients will help inform the effectiveness and gaps in existing pathways and policies. We used data from 13 nationally representative health surveys in England between 1994-2019 to compare nationwide trends in BP control and hypertension awareness over 25 years. We used ‘period’ definitions to define hypertension and BP control (i.e. using existing guidance at the time of the survey) to account for changes in BP targets and definitions. Analyses were also conducted using ‘current definitions’ (i.e. definition of hypertension and BP control targets as per NICE 2023), applied across the entire duration. Sample weights, accounting for oversampling and survey nonresponse, and other relevant transformations were applied. Python and STATA 18 were used to conduct analyses and Join Point regression software was used to compare trends. In England, between 1994-2019, the prevalence of hypertension initially increased sharply by 8% from 23.3% when the BP cut off was lowered in 1999. Thereafter for the next 12 years it remained static at 32-34%, and since 2011 has plateaued at 31-32%, showing only marginal improvement of 1.5% over this 25-year period (Figure 1). This is consistent with population-wide mean systolic (S) and diastolic (D) BPs, and amongst those with and without hypertension. Population-wide there was a reduction in SBP (8.5mmHg) and DBP (3.8mmHg) over the period. There was significantly greater reduction in SBP (11.9 vs 9.5mmHg) and DBP (4.1 vs 2.5mmHg) amongst those with diagnosed hypertension as compared to those without. Using the current target of below 140/90mmHg when evaluating BP control over this period suggests that we have improved. However, when we use ‘period definitions’ of BP targets at that time, it seems that over last 25 years there has been ‘no change’ in the proportion of diagnosed hypertensives with uncontrolled BPs (Figure 2). Additionally, although appearing to increase over the period, there has been no significant change in proportions of those with hypertension who are unaware of this condition since BP cut-offs were lowered in 1999. These findings indicate that in England, over last 25 years, whilst there have been some improvements in population wide mean SBP and DBP with slight reduction in hypertension prevalence, the proportions of those with known hypertension with uncontrolled BPs have remained static. This is despite improvement in medications and practice. Furthermore, there has been little progress in detection of those hypertensive patients who are unaware about and untreated for their condition. Clearly, these call in question the effectiveness of the current policies and clinical practice pathways and provide huge opportunity to improve population wide CV riskSytolic and Diastolic BP trendsTrends in the prevalence of BP control